Despite CAB row BJP not expecting Major Dent in 2019 Polls
GUWAHATI: Even as Assam burns after the Lok Sabha passed the controversial Citizenship (Amendment) Bill 2016 (CAB), which, despite being stalled in the Upper House in the recently concluded winter session, is expected to be raised in the Rajya Sabha during the forthcoming interim budget session, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) calculations indicate that it will not lose too much in the Lok Sabha elections of 2019 even if the bill is amended and passed into an Act before the elections.
A highly placed source in the BJP, talking to G Plus said, “The BJP will not lose much in the calculation of vote share in Assam and even in the entire country.”
He said that only two to three Lok Sabha seats will be a little affected.
The source revealed that the seats which will be majorly affected are Jorhat, Dibrugarh, Mangaldoi and Barpeta. He said the other seats will witness the same kind of results as in 2014.
According to his calculation after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit, 2 seats in Barak Valley – Silchar and Karimganj - will surely come to BJP in 2019. In 2014, the Silchar Lok Sabha seat was captured by the Congress and Karimganj went to All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF).
In 2014, out of 14 seats in Assam, BJP had won 7 seats (Gauhati, Mangaldoi, Tezpur, Nowgong, Jorhat, Dibrugarh and Lakhimpur), AIUDF had won 3 seats (Karimganj, Dhubri and Barpeta), Congress – 3 (Silchar, Diphu and Kaliabor) and independent candidate Naba Kumar Sarania (Hira) had won the Kokrajhar seat.
The BJP source claimed that Kaliabor will again go to the Congress, Barpeta and Dhubri to AIUDF but Jorhat, Dibrugarh and Mangaldoi will witness a major contest if the citizenship bill is amended. The source claimed that no doubt the indigenous Assamese people will be irked with the amendment but the BJP government’s decision like Schedule Tribe status to 6 tribes, Triple Talaq Bill, 10% reservation to economically backward class and many other decisions will work in its favour.
So the BJP is hardly apprehensive of the election results and looks determined to amend the citizenship bill despite knowing that the entire state of Assam will burn even if that happens.