Look back to 2014 polls: MP vote share and representativeness calculations
GUWAHATI: As the Lok Sabha elections 2019 draw closer, the Association of Democratic Reforms (ADR) and the National Election Watch have released a report analysing the percentage of votes won by the newly elected Members of Parliament (MPs) of Lok Sabha elections in 2014.
The report also mentions the “representativeness” of MPs among the total number of registered voters and has used the data provided by the Election Commission of India.
The percentage of representativeness has been calculated by dividing the votes polled for the winner by the electorate by the total number of registered voters. This value represents the percentage of votes won by the winning candidate among the total number of registered voters in the constituency.
Additionally, the percentage of vote share was calculated by dividing the votes polled for the winner by the total number of valid votes. This value represents the percentage of votes won by the winning candidate among the total number of valid votes polled.
Elections will be held in Assam in three phases on April 11, 18 and 23. Further, Gauhati constituency will go to polls in the third phase on April 23.
According to the ADR report, in 2014 Lok Sabha elections, at the national level, only four MPs out of 543 showed representativeness of more than 50 per cent. Interestingly, three out of these MPs belong to the northeast. These include Neiphiu Rio of NPF from Nagaland constituency, Jitendra Choudhury of CPI (M) from Tripura East constituency and Sankar Prasad Datta of CPI (M) who contested from Tripura West constituency.
While Rio earned a whopping 60 per cent representativeness, Choudhury and Datta received 55 per cent and 54 per cent representativeness respectively.
The report also states that in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, a total of 475 (87 per cent) winners had won with less than 40 per cent of total registered voters in their constituency.
On the other hand, 211 (39 per cent) winners had emerged victorious with less than 30 per cent of total registered voters in their constituency; and finally, 19 candidates had won with less than 20 per cent of total registered voters in their constituency—which makes for a representativeness of less than 20 per cent.
Blurb: “At the national level only four MPs out of 543 showed representativeness of more than 50 per cent.
Interestingly, three out of these MPs belong to the northeast.”
Representativeness and vote share of Assam MPs in 2014
As per the ADR report on the vote share of the elected MPs in 2014 Lok Sabha elections, we take a look at the MPs who were elected from Assam in 2014 and their representativeness.
Rameshwar Teli of BJP who was elected from the Dibrugarh constituency, won by a 55 per cent vote share with 4,94,364 voting for him as opposed to 8,90,968 total votes polled in the constituency.
Further, Sarbananda Sonowal, the current chief minister of Assam, who contested and won the Lok Sabha elections from the Lakhimpur constituency bagged the seat with 6,12,543 votes or 55 per cent vote share. The total polling in the constituency was recorded at 11,11,975. Lakimpur witnessed a decent polling percentage of 78 per cent.
Similarly, Naba Kumnar Sarania, the sitting MP from Kokrajhar Lok Sabha constituency, won with a vote share of 52 per cent or 6,34,428 votes. The constituency saw a polling of 81 per cent and his representativeness stood at 42 per cent.
The sitting MP from Gauhati, Bijoya Chakravarty, also fared decently in the 2014 elections as she secured 7,64,985 votes (51 per cent vote share) from her constituency out of the 15,11,729 total votes which were polled. She also achieved a representativeness of 40 per cent. There were in total 19,22,270 registered voters in her constituency and it saw 79 polling per cent. Further, there were a total of 6,720 votes which were polled for NOTA (none of the above).
In the same vein, from Jorhat constituency, MP Kamakhya Prasad Tasa from BJP won by a 49 per cent of vote share which was 4,56,420 votes. He secured 39 per cent representativeness and the constituency saw a voter turnout of 75 per cent.
As per the report, Rama Prasad Sarmah from Tezpur constituency won by a 46 per cent vote share and 4,46,511 votes. He achieved a representativeness of 35 per cent.
The All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) chief Badruddin Ajmal, the sitting MP from Dhubri constituency defeated his opponents with a with share of 43 per cent as 5,92,569 votes were polled in his favour. Further, he achieved a representativeness of 38 per cent. The constituency saw a polling of 88 per cent in 2014.
On the other hand, another sitting MP from Silchar, Congress’ Sushmita Dev, won by a total vote share of 42 per cent in her favour with 3,36,451 votes being polled for the winner. Her representativeness remained at 32 percent ion 2014 and Silchar saw a 75 per cent voter turnout.
The report further states that Rajen Gohain from Nowgong had 4,94,146 votes polled his favour and achieved a vote share of 40 per cent in his constituency. Nowgong saw a polling of 81 per cent in the last Lok Sabha elections.
Further, Congress leader and MP from Kaliabor Gourav Gogoi achieved victory by 38 per cent vote share in his favour or 4,43,315 votes polled for him. His representativeness was calculated to be 30 per cent and the constituency saw a voting of 80 per cent with 11,66,490 voters turning out to vote in the elections.